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Fourth Quarter Numbers Provide Glimmer of Hope

  • Written by James Gelfer No Comments Comments
    Last Updated: January 29, 2010

    GDPFor the second straight quarter the nation’s economy has grown, marking what many believe to be the end of the recession and the early stages of a possible long-term stabilization. Earlier today, President Obama announced that the GDP grew by 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the largest increase in six years. This is undoubtedly good news for the economy and the nation as a whole.

    The economic performance exceeded analysts’ expectations, which had been 4.8 percent for the fourth quarter. Several factors contributed to the better-than-expected economic growth, some of which are unsustainable. One of the most important factors in the GDP beating expert predictions was higher than expected business investment in software and equipment, which bodes well for economic growth and job development heading into the future.

    The main contributor sudden spike in GDP is companies that have been forced to restore depleted inventories. When the economy is suffering like it has been, many companies look to sell off as much inventory as they can without ordering more stock. Much of the boon in economic activity—3.4 percent to be exact—is contributable to these organizations finally ordering new inventory. Even after readjusting for this one-time spurt in growth, the economy still expanded by 2.2 percent. Now that many of these businesses have replenished their stockpiles, economists expect growth to taper off.

    Throughout the rest of the year, experts predict that growth will hover around 2.5 percent per quarter. One reason to be optimistic about the sustainability of GDP growth, however, is that the government played a limited role in the last quarter’s economic expansion. While people could point to cash for clunkers and other stimulus programs for the growth in the third quarter, the government slightly impeded economic growth in the final quarter of 2009.

    While this windfall of economic news is more than welcome, there is still a litany of problems that are left to confront, and the high unemployment rate continues to top the list. While unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy, many Americans will not feel like the times are changing until more people have full-time employment. Even as the GDP is predicted to climb throughout 2010, experts say that unemployment will continue to hover around 10 percent.

    During his State of the Union speech earlier this week, the president focused his attention on reviving the economy and spurring job growth in various sectors. Among his proposals is legislation that would provide tax breaks for businesses that hire on new workers or increase the wages and hours of existing ones.

    “It’s time to put Americans back to work,” President Obama said. “We’ve got a long way to go to make up for the millions of jobs lost this recession.”

    Putting the millions of people who lost their jobs back to work will take several years, even with government aid. The president also expressed a desire to double the nation’s exports within the next five years, noting that an increase in the exportation of American goods was a critical element of creating sustained growth. There are a myriad of obstacles in the way however, including economic liberals from the president’s own party and competing with the artificially depreciated currency of China. Exports rose by over 18 percent during the fourth quarter, which is a trend that will need to continue to sustain an economic recovery.

    Even with noteworthy fourth quarter numbers, the economy still shrunk by 2.4 percent in 2009, which is the biggest loss since 1946 and first overall decline in nearly two decades. The start of 2010 wasn’t great for Wall Street either, and stocks fell again today despite the GDP news. In order for the recovery to take place, consumer spending, which has been lagging, must return. According to a survey by Reuters and the University of Michigan, consumer confidence is at a two-year high, as many feel that the worst in now behind us. Consumers may have some of their swagger back, but that doesn’t mean that things are back to normal.

    “Consumers are overwhelmingly convinced that the worst is over, but nonetheless, expect stagnating income and job prospects rather than solid growth during the year ahead,” the University of Michigan report said.

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